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2 months ago

Global stocks hold at record highs as traders bet on rate cuts

A passerby is reflected on an electronic screen displaying a graph showing recent Japan's Nikkei share average movements and stock prices as the share average hits a record high in Tokyo, Japan February 26, 2024. 
A passerby is reflected on an electronic screen displaying a graph showing recent Japan's Nikkei share average movements and stock prices as the share average hits a record high in Tokyo, Japan February 26, 2024.  Photo : Reuters/Issei Kato/Files

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Global shares drifted around record highs on Friday after US and euro zone inflation data and weak global factory surveys kept hopes of central bank rate cuts in coming months intact.

With markets dominated by bets of both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank lowering borrowing costs in June, Europe's Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) index rose 0.2 per cent in early dealings, extending an all-time record.

Futures trading implied Wall Street's S&P 500 stock index, which also hit a record in the previous session, would edge lower later in the day while contracts on the technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 were seen easing 0.2 per cent.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei index (.N225) jumped 1.9 per cent to hit a fresh all-time high, extending a surge of 7.9 per cent the previous month when it breached levels last seen in 1989.

Markets see a 76 per cent probability that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in June and around a 60 per cent chance of the ECB dropping its deposit rate the same month, even without a recession expected.

"The period of double-digit inflation from which we are emerging is well and truly over," said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier in Geneva.

US personal consumer expenditures (PCE), the Fed's preferred gauge for inflation, rose 2.4 per cent in January, the smallest annual increase in three years, data on Thursday showed.

Inflation across the 20-nation euro zone also eased to 2.6 per cent in February from 2.8 per cent a month earlier, according to Eurostat figures published on Friday.

But a further softening of economic growth could change the market narrative if investors start to worry about companies' earnings, said Jon Mawby, co-head of absolute and total return credit at Pictet Asset Management.

Economists polled by Reuters expect the US economy to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and the euro zone to advance by 0.5 per cent.

"I think there's a not insignificant probability that the softer data is telling the real (economic) story," Mawby said.

Global factory surveys on Friday showed manufacturing output had continued to fall in both Europe and Asia.

HCOB's February final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 46.5 from January's 46.6, below the 50 mark separating growth in activity from contraction for a 20th month.

UK manufacturing output contracted for the 12th month as job cuts accelerated while extended weakness in the German PMI was viewed as indicative of a recession.

Government bond trading on Friday was steady, as investors balanced the lacklustre PMI surveys with the fact the euro zone inflation drop was not quite as steep as expected and core inflation remained stubbornly high.

Germany's 10-year Bund yield was flat at 2.46 per cent after falling 6 basis points (bps) on Thursday.

The 10-year Treasury yield , the benchmark for debt costs worldwide, inched 3 bps lower to 4.22 per cent. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

An index measuring the dollar against competing currencies was steady. The yen < JPY=EBS > weakened beyond 150 per dollar after contrasting comments from Bank of Japan officials kept investors guessing about when it might end its negative interest rates policy.

Oil prices were higher as traders awaited producer group OPEC+'s latest supply decision. Brent added 1.1 per cent to $82.81 a barrel, while US crude rose by the same amount to $79.11.

The spot gold price was 0.6 per cent higher at $2,054.70.

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