China widens lead as top import source of BD

China has further consolidated its position as Bangladesh's largest import source, with its share of the South Asian country's import basket having grown significantly during the October-December quarter of 2024, according to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS).

In December 2024, China accounted for 28.57 per cent of Bangladesh's total imports -- up by 5.51 percentage points from the same month a year earlier.

The upward trend was consistent throughout the quarter: in November, China's share was 28.12 per cent (up by 5.43 points year-on-year), and in October it peaked at 29.95 per cent (a 7.44-point rise).

This sustained growth reflects both the increasing dependency of Bangladeshi industries on Chinese raw materials and capital machinery, as well as China's strategic push to dominate regional trade through competitive pricing and aggressive outreach.

India, Bangladesh's second-largest trading partner, maintained a comparatively stable presence during the period. Its import share during October and November hovered around 13 per cent on average. In December, it inched up to 14.23 per cent, representing a modest year-on-year growth of 2.26 percentage points.

Indonesia, the third-largest import source, saw a fluctuating trend. Its share fell to 6.91 per cent in December -- down more than 1.0 percentage point from a year earlier. However, in November, the figure jumped to 8.64 per cent, up from 7.44 per cent a year ago. October saw little change.

People and economists familiar with the trade attribute the surge in Chinese imports to several factors: lower production costs in China, a broader range of exportable goods, favourable terms for industrial machinery including deferred payment, and the impact of domestic deflation in China, which has made its exports cheaper globally.

"Chinese goods are significantly more affordable than those from other countries," said Mr. Anwar-Ul-Alam Chowdhury (Pervez), managing director of leading textile group, Evince Group. "We source almost every kind of raw material and machinery from China at competitive prices. This has increased our reliance on Chinese imports."

Dr. M. Masrur Reaz, chairman and CEO of Policy Exchange Bangladesh, linked the price competitiveness to China's ongoing deflationary environment. "China is experiencing deflation -- a decline in the general price level due to weak domestic demand," he told the FE.

This means Chinese producers are pushing more aggressively into export markets with lower prices, making their goods more attractive to countries like Bangladesh. The growing reliance on China, while beneficial in terms of cost, has raised concerns among some economists and trade experts about overdependence on a single country for essential industrial inputs.

"This trade tilt needs to be watched closely," said a senior official at the Ministry of Commerce, requesting anonymity. He mentioned that the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to deepen infrastructure and economic ties across Asia is helping boost the trade.

Bangladesh, a signatory to the BRI, has received billions in infrastructure loans from China, reinforcing the relationship. "Trade diversification -- especially sourcing more from Southeast Asia, the EU, or South Korea -- would help balance this rising tilt," said a Dhaka-based economist, who wishes to remain anonymous.

jasimharoon@yahoo.com