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As the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) nears its expected commercial launch in early 2026, concerns are growing among energy experts over its financial viability, with many questioning whether the high project cost could turn it into a white elephant.
The government conceived the idea of setting up the RNPP project in 2009 and signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Russian Federation on May 13, 2009, on the "Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy."
On January 15, 2013, an agreement regarding State Export Credit of US$ 500 million was signed for carrying out preparatory phase construction works of the Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant.
According to official data, the construction of Rooppur NPP will cost $12.65 billion as per the contract signed with the Russian state nuclear agency Rosatom by the Bangladesh government.
Of this, Russia will finance the project through a state credit of $11.385 billion, covering 90 percent of the total cost of $12.65 billion.
During the agreement, both Dhaka and Moscow agreed that Russia would provide the loan at an interest rate of six months LIBOR plus 1.75 per cent per annum, but it would never exceed 4 per cent.
Bangladesh will pay off the loan within 28 years with a 10-year grace period.
When the nuclear contract was signed on July 26, 2016, the dollar price was below Tk 84, and the total cost was calculated at Tk 1012 billion (Tk 101,200 crore).
However, the dollar price has now risen beyond Tk 121, increasing the project cost to Tk 1536.35 million (Tk 153,635 crore)—over a 50 per cent increase in local currency.
Soon after signing the deal, Rosatom issued a statement saying that it would build the 2,400 MW power plant, with the first unit (1,200 MW) going into operation in 2022 and the second unit (1,200 MW) in 2023.
However, the first unit is yet to start commercial operation, while the second unit’s operation is unlikely to begin before 2027.
The Bangladesh Atomic Energy Commission (BAEC), which has been implementing the project, still does not know the possible tariff of the electricity to be generated from the project.
Even the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), which will purchase electricity from the project, has no idea about the possible tariff of electricity from Rooppur NPP.
Rooppur NPP Project Director Dr Md Zahedul Hassan admitted the matter, stating that his organisation has been preparing the tariff paper to begin negotiations with the BPDB.
"Almost two years ago, the RNPP authority organised a joint workshop for BPDB officials to provide an idea about the possible tariff rate. But when they were asked about the project's total cost, including dismantling, they failed to share any information," he explained.
A senior BPDB official stated that they have made a preliminary calculation based on data derived from discussions with BAEC and newspaper reports, estimating that the tariff for each unit of electricity from the RNPP will be no less than Tk 10.
From the very beginning, confusion has surrounded the eventual levelized tariff or the possible generation cost of each unit of electricity, said the official.
Levelized Tariff is a means to recover the entire cost of a project during its lifecycle.
At the initial stage of the RNPP project, its officials had estimated the tariff would be around $0.04, or 4 cents, per kilowatt-hour—about Tk 3.50 when the US dollar rate was below Tk 80.
Russian experts, in their papers sent to RNPP officials, mentioned an even lower tariff, about $0.0319 or 3.2 cents.
In 2022, the project director of RNPP and managing director of the newly formed Nuclear Power Company of Bangladesh Limited (NPCBL), speaking to UNB news agency earlier, had also estimated that the tariff would be within $0.04.
He said RNPP's calculation was based on 50 years of stable fuel prices, 50 years of operational tenure, and the capital investment cost. The main factor that kept the tariff low was the low discount rate of the project.
He also said the calculation of the plant factor at 93 per cent was another reason for the lower tariff.
However, local power tariff experts disagree with this calculation, stating that the tariff will be much higher than this estimation.
According to some local experts' calculations, the power tariff of the RNPP project will cross $0.08 - 0.10 (8-10 US Cents).
One of the country's eminent power tariff experts, Mizanur Rahman, former Member of the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC), stated that the electricity tariff from the nuclear power project would be more than $0.085 (8.5 cents).
Mizan, also a former chief engineer of BPDB, believes the tariff will be more than double RNPP's calculation.
Referring to his own calculation based on the total cost of the project at $13.2 billion ($12.65 billion construction cost and $500 million feasibility study cost), plus 50 years of operation with 50 years of fuel price, and the cost of decommissioning and spent fuel repatriation, he said the tariff would be about $0.085, or between Tk 9-10 per unit if the US dollar rate is calculated at Tk 109.
"But if the dollar rate increases further, the tariff will be over Tk 10 per unit," he said, adding that during the loan repayment period, the power production cost will be 12-13 cents, and then it will come down to 5-6 cents.
He mentioned that the repatriation of spent nuclear fuel—such as the ones at Rooppur—will be back to the Russian Federation until Bangladesh gains expertise in dealing with nuclear waste, and decommissioning nuclear power is a very costly process.
"As the dollar rate crosses Tk 121, the electricity tariff of nuclear power will definitely cross Tk 10 per unit," said Mizanur Rahman.
While calculating the tariff, BPDB officials noted that Bangladesh would start repaying the loan from March 2027 and complete repayment within the next 20 years by paying $1.360 billion per annum through 40 instalments.
"On average, about $680 million will be paid annually, including principal and interest," he added.