Local rice prices still high amid downtrend globally

Rice prices in the domestic market are still showing an upward trend, even though global prices have been declining gradually.

According to the latest FAO All Rice Price Index, rice prices globally have further fell to a three-year low in March-down by 1.7 per cent from February.

Over the past year, the rice index has seen a total drop of nearly 25 per cent.

In Bangladesh, however, rice prices began rising from the July-August period last year and have continued to do so.

The latest hike occurred just before Eid-ul-Fitr, with medium, fine and aromatic rice varieties witnessing further increases.

Medium and fine rice saw a hike of Tk 2.0-4.0 per kg, while aromatic rice rose by Tk 10-15.

Medium-quality rice now sells at Tk 67-72 per kg and fine rice (such as miniket and parboiled katari) at Tk 75-124 countrywide.

According to the Trading Corporation of Bangladesh, current prices are 15-20 per cent higher than they were a year ago.

The FAO All Rice Price Index (FARPI) fell by 1.7 per cent in March 2025 to an average of 104.1 points. At that level, FARPI is 24.6 per cent lower than its value a year earlier and is at a three-year low.

Export quotations declined in all major rice market segments in March.

However, in the fragrant rice market, demand-driven increases in Thai Hom Mali prices offset weaknesses in other origins.

This kept the March value of the Aromatic Index stable month on month, while the Indica and Glutinous Indices fell by nearly 2.0 per cent each.

Export quotations of Indica rice showed mixed trends across major Asian origins during March. Prices continued to fall in India and Thailand due to subdued demand and the arrival of new supplies from secondary crop harvests.

In Thailand, the ongoing depreciation of the baht against US dollar, along with weak offshore demand, contributed to a fall in price. New crop arrivals in Pakistan also countered the effects of the appreciating rupee.

Kasem Ali, a grocer in Lalmatia, Mohammadpur, said that the wholesale price of BRRI Dhan-28, a medium variety, had increased by Tk 80-100 per 50-kg sack.

Coarse hybrid and Guti Swarna rice prices remained stable at their previous high, but fine rice saw a rise of Tk 100-150 per sack just a week before Eid.

He said that aromatic rice recorded the sharpest increase-Tk 10-15 a kg-before the Eid.

He further said that a recent government announcement allowing the export of aromatic rice contributed to the price hike of both aromatic and finer rice.

However, value-chain expert and agricultural economist Prof Golam Hafeez said the initial surge in rice prices was mainly caused by floods between July and August 2024, triggered by water released from Indian dams, which potentially reduced production.

Aman rice production was relatively good this season, despite the loss of 0.35 million hectares due to flash floods, as average yield increased, he added.

The government also removed all duties on rice imports, while the Directorate General of Food (DGoF) bought rice from both local and global sources.

Despite efforts, he said, the impact of floods and the rising dollar exchange rate were key factors in keeping rice prices elevated throughout the year.

Millers and allied traders have also stockpiled a significant amount of paddy, which may have influenced the market.

Boro harvest in the haor region has just begun.

All available combined harvesters in the country should be mobilised there to complete most of the harvest by April to avoid possible flash floods.

DGoF director (procurement) Md Moniruzzaman said the government's primary target was to import 0.50-million tonnes of rice this fiscal year to help stabilise the domestic market and contribute to the social safety net.

The government has finalised deals with four countries-India, Pakistan, Myanmar and Vietnam-to import rice, according to him.

The target until June this year was 0.50-million tonnes, while the food ministry has extended it to 0.90-million tonnes until December.

Mr Monir said the private sector has imported 0.3-million tonnes of rice.

According to the food ministry, the country has inked deals to bring in 0.2-million tonnes of rice from India, 0.05-million tonnes from Pakistan, 0.1-million tonnes from Vietnam and 0.1-million tonnes from Myanmar.

Bangladesh signed the latest contract with Vietnam in February to import 0.1-million tonnes of rice.

Meanwhile, the DGoF has also procured 0.54-million tonnes of rice from domestic sources under its Aman procurement programme.

The government warehouses now have 0.924-million tonnes of rice.

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