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The Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) and Commonwealth Summit 2018 took place in London and Windsor from April 16-20. At present it contains 53 member Countries, but it can be a (+ or - ) depending on who is in or out at a particular point in time (most cases angrily getting out or being pushed out; then returning after issuing a mea culpa and allowed back in). The meeting always assumes a grandeur of its own and that is precisely the point - it is, after all, a post-colonial conference of countries that are united by a common experience of being British colonies in the past. Except a shared history of its members' colonial past, it remains an archaic institution, with not much in common among its member countries. Despite the 2018 CHOGM theme "Towards a Common Future", in fact, there are member countries which are in extreme hostile relationship with each other. Many have for a long time argued that CHOGM is a relic of a past long gone and it is time the members made a fresh start.
The combined population of member countries now stands at 2.4 billion, of which 60 per cent are estimated to be under the age of 30 and close to 38 member countries are estimated to be likely victims of climate change. It accounts for a fifth of world trade. The commonwealth is committed to promote prosperity, democracy and peace but prosperity and democracy remain in very short supply in most Commonwealth countries. As for the pursuit of peace, two member countries, the UK and Australia as client states of the USA, have been and still are involved in all US-led wars across the globe. In the recent past these two countries have participated in the occupation and destruction of Afghanistan and Iraq and, more recently, in the destruction of Syria. The UK was an active participant in the destruction of Libya. Overall, the performance record of its stated goals is pretty dismal.
For the host country the UK, the 2018 CHOGM is viewed, in part, through the lens of BREXIT to explore extended avenues for its trade relations. Pro-Brexiters have always had a nostalgia for the colonial past and lamented the loss of it but recognising the reality want to reconnect with the members of the old empire and re-energise what they see as under-utilised trading relationships. But a very prominent member of the British establishment Lord David Howell, a former minister under Prime Minister Mrs Margaret Thatcher and now head of the Royal Commonwealth Society, has other big ideas for the Commonwealth. He thinks the rise of China should spur commonwealth members to act more strongly together on global issues. He also has Russia on his radar for helping Syria to defend its territorial integrity and sovereignty and he wants to wheel in a network like the Commonwealth to face up to Russia. He even went on to a higher moral plateau that commonwealth member countries must uphold democracy, free speech, good governance and rule of law against those who do not believe in any of them (read China and Russia). If these criteria are applied to Commonwealth members, it will be left with only a very few members.
Australia, the self-appointed US Deputy Sheriff in the Pacific region, was very direct in its approach in containing the rising Chinese influence in the Pacific region. It brought intense pressure to bear on smaller Pacific island nations that have received financial assistance from China to build roads and ports. New Zealand also lined up to extend support to Australia to ensure that nine pacific island countries fall in line with the US-backed and Australian-led campaign to contain China in the Pacific. Australia has also promised financial sweeteners to these island nations to woo them away from China.
New Zealand not to fall behind in its zeal to contain China, its Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern flew off to Paris to meet the French President. Both Ardern and Macron reaffirmed their friendship and continued defence cooperation in the Pacific. Macron also accepted an invitation to visit New Zealand. Macron is already scheduled to make a three-day visit to Australia, starting on May, 01. France maintains a sizeable military presence in the Pacific region through its territories in New Caledonia and French Polynesia. France is the most steadfast country, along with the UK, in Europe to contain Russia in Syria.
But the centrepiece of the show at CHOGM was the presence of the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He received a Bollywood-star like reception at the meeting. That Modi decided to attend the meeting for the first time since 2010, further added to the whole fanfare. Modi definitely was enjoying the new limelight; and it is being a club where China is not a member, made it even better to project his worldview. India is the most populous nation in the club, now seen as an active partner to join in the US-led coalition against China in the Pacific and getting drafted as a fully-fledged client state. Australia and the UK are actively using CHOGM to enhance India's involvement to a revived commonwealth military engagement in the Pacific. This is an approach which is completely in sync with Modi's vision of making India great again, though his inspiration for making India great again comes for the Indian mythology than from its history. Not that Modi needed much of a prop, India has already made its military presence visible in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea and slowly expanding into the Pacific - indeed there has been a surge in Indian naval presence in the Pacific.
Modi is also at the same time trying to make India's presence more robust in the Indian Ocean. India has already entered into an agreement with Seychelles to build a military base in Assumption island. Modi met Seychelles President Danny Faure at the meeting but the proposed deal has been stalled now in the face of mounting opposition against the base in the country. The main opposition party already declared it would not ratify the agreement. Despite such a setback, CHOGM has further energised Modi's vision of making India great again and also given it a global dimension. But Modi seems to be beset with problems at home rather than with China. His "Crores'' (a crore is 10 million) of rupees nationwide toilet programme is not yielding the desired results, still one quarter of world's poorest are living in India, unemployment is rising, public lynching and rapes are rising, suicides among Indian farmers are rising, only thing that is not rising is the living standard of the overwhelming majority of Indians. But it is a win-win situation for the UK as a more militarised India will open up further opportunities to sell arms to India.
Meanwhile, the Deputy Sheriff, according to the informed sources, lost significant ground in the Pacific region, possibly irreparably, by overstretching its very limited military capability by getting involved in Afghanistan and the Middle East. That does not stop the corporate media to hype up anti-China propaganda campaign but that's a very cold comfort. A clear resolution on Syria blaming Russia was made impossible by getting a consensus across all member countries. This was further made difficult as the British Prime Minister Theresa May herself faced intense criticism both within UK parliament and outside for undertaking illegal military strikes against Syria with the USA and France.
Europe and the Pacific were the two major battle fields in World War II. The US-led geo-strategic confrontational alliance against China and Russia can lead the world towards catastrophic consequences.
Muhammad Mahmood is an independent economic and political analyst.