Gas price hike couldn't come at a worse time

The government's decision to raise gas prices for new industries by an average of 33 per cent, defying strong opposition from industrialists and business leaders, is being widely criticised for a multitude of reasons. First of all, the industrial gas tariff hike came amid the country's bleak investment scenario and macroeconomic vulnerability, and thereby, may put further damper on new investment.

Currently, several key economic indicators that reflect a country's investment scenario are on a downward trend. According to the latest data from Bangladesh Bank, private sector credit growth fell to a decade-low of 6.82 per cent in February, driven by declining loan demand from businesses. Another key indicator reflecting the investment climate is the import of capital machinery, which dropped by 30.10 per cent in the first eight months of fiscal year 2024-25 (July to February), compared to the same period last year. An investment slowdown, weak private credit growth, and reduced imports of capital machinery often go hand in hand.

Foreign direct investment has also experienced a sharp drop in the first half of the current fiscal year. In July-December period of FY2024-25, overseas investment fell by more than 71 per cent compared to the same period in the previous year.

These facts and figures make it amply clear that a red light is flashing on the country's investment dashboard. In this context, when investors are already unnerved by high interest rates, prolonged political uncertainty, and persistent high inflation, the increase in utility prices comes as yet another blow. The decision is feared to further dampen the already subdued investment climate, hinder industrial growth, impede job creation, and slow down economic recovery.

Then again, the new tariff is discriminatory. Introduction of a discriminatory tariff in the industrial sector by none other than a government that came to power riding on the back of an anti-discriminatory movement is the last thing one would have expected. But this is what has just happened.

As per the Sunday's announcement of the Bangladesh Energy Regulatory Commission (BERC), new industrial units will have to pay Tk 40 for per cubic metre of gas instead of Tk 30. Similarly, new captive power users will have to pay Tk 42 per cubic metre, which was previously Tk 31.5. The existing consumers will have to pay at the previous rate, but in the case of using gas beyond their sanctioned load, they will have to pay following the new tariff. Moreover, those who have received primary approval for new connections will have to pay new tariff if their usage exceeds 50 per cent of their sanctioned load.

As things stand, as per the BERC pricing structure, older factories, along with household, commercial users, and CNG filling stations, will continue to receive gas at previous rates, while new industrial units-as well as existing ones that decide to increase production-will have to pay significantly higher prices for this essential fuel. Business leaders rightly question the rationale behind applying different fuel rates for the production of similar goods within the same sector. Thanks to this discriminatory policy, new businesses will face significant challenges in competing with their established counterparts. Consequently, it will push new investors at the back foot and may even compel them to put their business expansion plan on hold as they will face added cost pressure and uneven competition.

The timing of the utility price hike is also being questioned, as it runs counter to the government's recent efforts to boost investment. It came at a time when the government is trying to rope in more foreign investors.  Notably, the announcement was made just a few days after the conclusion of a major investment summit in Dhaka attended by over 500 foreign investors from around 50 countries. Many argue that it could potentially send a wrong signal to potential investors about the country's policy unpredictability.

The previous Awami League government, with the promise of providing uninterrupted supplies, had raised gas tariffs for small and cottage industries by 178.29 per cent to Tk 30 per cubic meter from Tk 10.78 in February 2024. Rates for captive power plants, small power plants and merchant power plants were raised by 87.50 per cent to Tk 30 per cubic meter from previous Tk 16.  Despite this substantial price hike, the government failed to deliver the promised uninterrupted gas supply.

Bangladesh has witnessed a substantial hike in energy prices, apparently due to the policy failures of the previous government. Instead of prioritising the exploration of new gas fields, the government chose to import expensive LNG-allegedly to benefit certain cronies in the energy sector. To make matters worse, when LNG imports began in 2018, global gas prices were still at tolerable levels. However, the Russia-Ukraine war caused prices to surge worldwide. This, combined with exchange rate volatility and a persistent dollar crisis, has further aggravated the situation for Bangladesh.

Now, the pressing question is whether the current interim government will continue with the same flawed energy policies of its predecessor or chart a new course - one that would incorporate forward-looking strategies and prioritise the optimal utilisation of the country's onshore and offshore gas reserves.

Another critical challenge is the excessively high rate of system loss. At present, the technical loss rate of gas in Bangladesh stands at around 3 per cent-far above the international standard of 0.20 to 0.30 percent. Allegations have it that gas stolen through illegal connections is being passed off as technical loss. In just the first six months of the current fiscal year, 1.37 billion (137 crore) cubic meters of gas were lost due to system loss. With Petrobangla spending Tk 79.34 to import and supply each cubic meter of gas, the financial loss from this wastage amounts to Tk 108.7 billion. Reducing this excessive level of system loss could save the country billions. This is where the authorities should focus instead of burdening industries with steep tariff hikes that threatens future growth prospects.

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