Indo-Pak conflict & Bangladesh: A call for caution

The recent Pahalgam attack, which claimed 26 innocent lives, has reignited the long-simmering tensions between India and Pakistan, casting a shadow over South Asia's fragile stability. As the two nuclear-armed neighbors engage in retaliatory measures -- from diplomatic downgrades to cross-border skirmishes -- the ripple effects threaten to destabilise a region already grappling with economic headwinds. For Bangladesh, situated at the crossroads of this geopolitical fault line, the crisis demands a deft balancing act. The nation's economic aspirations and diplomatic credibility hinge on its ability to remain non-aligned, even as external pressures mount. 

There is no doubt that if this tension cannot be swiftly and wisely eased, the long-term repercussions for Bangladesh could be profound. Already, a perception seems to be gaining ground among certain sections of Indian policymakers that Bangladesh's present regime is tilted towards India's strategic adversaries, namely China and Pakistan. Whether or not this perception is grounded in reality, the situation warrants Bangladesh's most cautious and professional diplomatic response.

It is imperative, therefore, that Bangladesh act with utmost professionalism and ensure that it remains totally non-aligned in current situation. History teaches that neutrality, when sincerely pursued and carefully maintained, is a nation's strongest shield in turbulent times. Bangladesh must reaffirm its neutral stance not just in official statements, but also in actions, gestures, and conduct at all levels of government and civil society. We earnestly hope that persons in responsible positions in Bangladesh will refrain from making any comment or displaying any gesture that could question or compromise the country's neutrality.

The Pahalgam attack has undoubtedly added fuel to an already volatile situation. India has directly blamed Pakistan for harboring links to the attackers, a charge that Islamabad has firmly denied. In response, India has swiftly downsized diplomatic relations, cancelled visas for Pakistani nationals, and, most significantly, suspended its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty -- an agreement that has stood resilient even through full-fledged wars between the two countries.

India's decision to put the Indus treaty on hold is no ordinary step. For decades, this treaty had symbolised a rare zone of cooperation between two bitter rivals. Suspending it reflects the deep anger and frustration within Indian policymaking circles. Predictably, Pakistan has termed the move an act of war and has taken countermeasures, including restricting its airspace for Indian flights. Within two days of the escalation, cross-border skirmishes erupted between soldiers of both countries -- a disturbing reminder of how quickly a regional dispute can spiral out of control.

The conflict's escalation comes at a time when South Asia's economies are already reeling under external pressures -- the lingering impacts of the Ukraine war, global inflation, and the imposition of new tariffs by a major global power. At a juncture when countries like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal are seeking pathways to economic recovery and growth, the Indo-Pak conflict has emerged as a spoiler -- a dangerous distraction from the urgent task of economic rebuilding.

For Bangladesh, the stakes are particularly high. It has strong and growing economic ties with India, encompassing trade, energy cooperation, and connectivity projects. Simultaneously, there have been early signs of a potential new opening in economic relations with Pakistan in recent times.

The region's economies, including Bangladesh, are battling post-pandemic recovery, soaring commodity prices, and shrinking export markets. India and Pakistan, both facing stagflation risks, are diverting resources from development to defense. The World Bank's recent downgrade of South Asia's growth forecast to 5.8 per cent in 2023 reflects these pressures. A protracted Indo-Pak conflict would exacerbate supply chain disruptions, energy shortages, and food insecurity, hitting Bangladesh's import-dependent economy hardest. 

Any deterioration in the regional security environment could jeopardize these ties, undermining both immediate economic interests and long-term strategic goals.

Moreover, the conflict carries serious implications for Bangladesh's ambitions to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). After the fall of the previous regime, which had become synonymous with corruption and irregularities, Bangladesh managed to rekindle the interest of a number of international investors. The ongoing US-China trade war had also led many multinational companies to scout for alternative investment destinations, and Bangladesh -- with its strategic location and emerging manufacturing base -- was beginning to emerge as a serious candidate.

However, investors are notoriously risk-averse. No matter how attractive the incentives or the opportunities, few will be willing to invest in a country that is geographically positioned beside two potentially warring nuclear-armed nations. Instability, real or perceived, is poison to investor confidence. Thus, an extended or worsening Indo-Pak conflict could deal a heavy blow to Bangladesh's economic prospects at a time when it can least afford such a setback.

Given these realities, Bangladesh must tread with extreme caution. Its diplomatic efforts must focus on maintaining impeccable neutrality, reinforcing friendly relations with both India and Pakistan, and playing a constructive role -- if invited -- to promote dialogue and peace. Bangladesh must also be clear-eyed about its own national interests, prioritizing the security, economic stability, and well-being of its people above all other considerations.

At the same time, the broader hope must remain that India and Pakistan themselves will show the necessary restraint and pragmatism in dealing with the current crisis. Neither side should allow domestic politics, emotions, or historical grievances to drive them toward further escalation. The temptation to use conflict as a tool for short-term political gain must be resisted. At the end of the day, war between two nuclear powers is a zero-sum game in which no real victor can emerge. Both nations -- and the entire South Asian region -- would stand to lose immeasurably from such a catastrophe.

Indeed, the leaders of both India and Pakistan owe it to their own people, as well as to the region, to de-escalate tensions and return to the path of dialogue and diplomacy. There are enough challenges facing South Asia already -- poverty, inequality, climate change, and the pressing need for economic development -- that should command the full attention and resources of regional governments. To add the horrors of war to these burdens would be an unforgivable tragedy.

In conclusion, Bangladesh must prepare carefully for all possible scenarios while remaining steadfastly neutral and committed to peace. At the same time, it is in the collective interest of the region that India and Pakistan recognise the futility of further escalation and work toward resolving their differences through peaceful means. The future prosperity and stability of South Asia depend on it.

mirmostafiz@yahoo.com