Is water war in the offing?

Shorter winter followed by prolonged summer marked by heatwaves with the level of mercury rising over 40 degrees centigrade has become a new normal. The congested cities like Dhaka with receding greenery  and advancing concrete cover,  are turning into veritable hellholes. The use of cooling devices to keep inside temperatures of buildings low is making matters worse. For the heat of the interior of the buildings now goes outside to heat up the overall environment of the cities further.  Now to run the cooling devices you need power. To generate that power you have to burn fuel, which is the primary cause of global warming that has given rise to this phenomenon of heatwaves and rising temperatures in the first place. So, it is a vicious cycle we are trapped in. Worse yet, far from trying to find ways to break the cycle, measures are being taken only to maintain the status quo.  By burning fossil fuel to generate power and keep the inside of the buildings of cities cool during hot summer, nothing is being ultimately  gained. In fact, we are only continuing the policy of the West that gave rise to the climate change. Small wonder that, as a result, least developed countries like Bangladesh are being made to atone for the sin   that the advanced industrial countries committed in the beginning. It is from  the first industrial age when it all started.  The ongoing heatwaves have definitely to do with the overall impacts of climate change. But are we really aware as a climate vulnerable nation that one climatic change-related phenomenon after another is increasing the challenge of adapting to it?

Let us have an idea of how the subject of heat or temperature is gradually accumulating before us. A 2023 study, for instance, shows that between 1949 and 2013, temperature has risen in this part of the world at the rate of 0.13 degrees centigrade per decade. By 2050, this rate of temperature rise is predicted to be going up to 1.4 degrees centigrade. Looks like, it is a small amount. But when it comes to the amount of heat it can accumulate, that is huge. The heatwaves and the accompanying temperatures that we are now experiencing is the result of this ever rising rate of temperature. If 40 degrees centigrade and above is now normal. The indications are that things are getting worse. Scientists warn that it is not just the impacts of natural phenomena like El Nino  that are behind the ever rising temperatures in recent years. In fact, human actions in the form of, for example,  constructing high-rise  buildings in great numbers and that, too, in an unplanned way are also a major factor  to blame, scientists pointed out.  The seasonal patterns have already changed fundamentally. A multinational research done in 2021, revealed that between 1950 and 2021, monsoon rainfalls in the months between May and October decreased. On the other hand, episodic rainfalls increased fourfold in Bangladesh. But alongside, increase in episodic rainfalls, we are also experiencing droughts. The duration of the droughts are getting longer, drying up natural water reservoirs. Here also human actions have a big role to play. But there are still far worse kinds of human actions that destroyed the forests and depleted natural reservoirs below the ground. Those are wars that humans have fought and have been fighting for control of natural  resources including water. Though the possibility  of water wars that was forecast in the 1970s did not after all take place on a predicted scale, there is no guarantee that such wars will not break out in the future. The main reason for such wars would be the control and diversion of the flow of natural water courses like rivers. Consider the recent faceoff between India and Pakistan, two nuclear nations with common border. Though initially, it was on the diplomatic level over a terrorist attack on tourists leading to  around 26 or more deaths, it has now taken  more serious turn with  India's statement that it has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty. If the two neighbours will really come to deadly blows is a different issue, the point to consider here is that the upper riparian has chosen or has threatened to choose the most sensitive weapon, water, to punish its adversary. In fact, most rivers in the world being transboundary in nature, there is a great risk in the future that conflicts, even wars might break out over shared water resources. In such cases, responsibility will lie on the upper riparian nations in the case of the transboundary rivers to be more prudent about the issue. To be frank, whenever there is an option, humans will be prone to use it. Building water control structures to generate power or build dams on rivers to tame them as protection against floods or to divert their course to irrigate lands deprived of water was appreciated in the past when fewer people than now lived on earth. During those times Nature seemed to be abundant and even wild such as the mighty rivers like Padma, Meghna and Jumna in this region in particular.  So, humans would then try to demonstrate their power over Nature by taming and harnessing it by various means. International lending agencies like the World Bank would then encourage nations to build dams to control floods,  stop erosion or for diverting water to help irrigation. In this manner, most rivers of the world are now in chains. What was once a great boon to the people is now proving to be a bane of many.  Meanwhile, the rivers have started to run dry either due to diversion of water by the upper riparian or for natural reasons. For countries with seacoasts like Bangladesh, it has turned further problematic. With the reduction of  water flowing in the rivers, salinity increases in the coastal regions, depriving coastal people of sweet water  to drink as well as to        cultivate lands for agriculture. This calls for creating strong international arbitration mechanism so that countries sharing common rivers could get fair share of river waters whenever any dispute arises between co-riparian countries.

sfalim.ds@gmail.com