Reform prospects fading

A question raised by a local think tank as to whether the interim government has lost its way in its pursuit of implementing reforms, has struck a chord with many. It has been one year since the interim government assumed power following the ouster of the previous regime through a historic student-mass uprising in July-August, 2024. The post-uprising government, led by Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, initially enjoyed unprecedented public support. The common citizen had high expectations regarding reformation of state institutions, economic stabilisation and restoration of democratic governance. Despite the interim government's success in some areas, these were overshadowed by persistent law-and-order problems and weak governance. Consequently, the initial euphoria over the government's performance has now faded. 

The dispirited public mood was reflected in a recent gathering of civil society members. Leading economists, some of whom were involved in the government-formed reform commissions, attended the event to take stock of the progress on the reform agenda, and they couldn't help but vent their frustration. Speaking at the discussion, the economists noted that the initial enthusiasm for the reforms had already faded. The 11 reform commissions formed by the government to suggest measures relating to the country's constitution, electoral system, police administration, judiciary, anti-corruption commision, health, media, labour rights, women's affairs and other issues have already submitted their proposals with great enthusiasm. But the fate of these recommendations remains uncertain, with the reform proposals shelved for months.

Apparently, this failure to translate ideas into action has prompted Debapriya Bhattacharya, who headed the Committee for White Paper on the State of Bangladesh's Economy, to raise the aforementioned question. He further asked: "Why the commissions' recommendations were not implemented? Is it a lack of will, a lack of ability, or is there a deeper, significant conflict of interest at play?" With the national elections coming up in February, such questions are bound to arise with increasing frequency as the public scrutinises the interim government's progress on its reform commitments.

The interim government inherited an economy on the brink of collapse, plagued by depleting reserves, dollar crisis, widespread money laundering, a fragile banking sector, and high inflation. A year later, there is a semblance of macroeconomic stability. Foreign reserves have risen, driven by increased remittance inflows and export earnings. The exchange rate has stabilised, while inflation eased somewhat in recent months due to a tight monetary policy and the removal of import duties on essential goods. However, since August, inflation has resurged, fuelled by supply-side constraints stemming largely from persistent rains. 

At the same time, efforts are there to curb banking sector irregularities and salvage failing banks that were bled dry through systemic looting under the previous regime. As a result, public confidence in banks has been restored. 

But overall, economic growth has slowed due to a decline in investment. Often described as the lifeline of the economy, investment has stagnated mainly because of political uncertainty and rampant rent-seeking. This slowdown has a direct bearing on the rising unemployment and poverty, which, in turn, is aggravating the law-and-order situation.

Meanwhile, the government's reform agenda on the economic front has taken a backseat. Although no reform commissions were formed on economic issues, several task forces were set up. A task force was formed to prepare a 'White Paper on the State of Bangladesh's Economy' and another on 'Re-strategising the Economy and Mobilising Resources for Equitable and Sustainable Development.' These task forces made actionable recommendations for economic growth, social development, and environmental sustainability in the short, medium, and long terms. Their reports were submitted to the Chief Adviser several months ago. Unfortunately, the government has yet to show any interest in implementing the proposed reforms.

Apart from managing the economy, a government's success is largely determined by its performance in maintaining law and order. But the way mob lynching, robbery, and other petty crimes have been going on unabated day in day out across the country has led many to doubt whether the government has a crime-fighting mechanism in place. It is perplexing why the government has so spectacularly failed to maintain law and order, even after deploying the army with magistracy powers. Reforming the police force was one of the pressing demands after the uprising. The Police Reform Commission has already submintted its report offering a clear and detailed plan to improve policing in Bangladesh. But the recommendations are yet to be implemented. 

What about the bureaucracy and government offices? Has corruption declined, or has service efficiency improved? There is little reason to believe so. On the contrary, allegations are there that corrupt government officers have become even more demanding now a days. 

At the start of the reform drive in public administration, the Chairman of the Public Administration Reform Commission faced backlash from certain members of the civil service. This may have prompted the government to become hesitant in implementing the commission's recommendations. However, the government could have executed several key recommendations, especially those directly related to public service delivery, through executive orders, had it chosen to do so. One of the government's most critical tasks was to structurally transform bureaucracy from its traditional colonial-style power structure into a citizen-centric service model.

Instead of doing that, recently, an official directive was issued stating that female government officers (particularly those in senior positions) should no longer be addressed as "Sir." However, it remains unclear how or to what extent this will benefit the people. The judiciary, too, is in dire need of reform, but prospects remain dim. 

The people were promised a new Bangladesh, which will remain a pipe dream if the government falters and ultimately abandons its reform drive. Currently, the government is stuck in a seemingly endless negotiation with political parties over drafting of a 'July Charter', while the window to implement key institutional reforms - many of which could be executed through executive orders - is closing fast. Between now and the elections in February, the government has both an opportunity and a moral obligation to deliver on its promise.

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