Confusion shrouding the coming US election

This year has started with the general election in Bangladesh. Despite several attempts by some political parties to subvert and frustrate the constitutional consistency of holding the election under the supervision of the Election Commission, the election has taken place and it has been participatory with a large number of Parties taking part.

We are now witnessing emerging disorder and confusion in the United States with regard to the US elections that will be held in that country at the end of 2024. We have seen from the last week of December 2023 chaos deepening within the paradigm of the Presidential election. This development appears to have enhanced some factors that quickly required a solution, with the state of  Iowa waiting to kick off voting in the Republican nomination race on January 15.

In this context S. Collinson, political analyst associated with the CNN and also some other analysts from different media have been drawing attention to evolving situations that have emerged in Colorado and recently in Maine. Constitutional confusion started in early December because of a decision by the Colorado Supreme Court and has now been sharpened in Maine. The measures according to S. Collinson have "worsened a growing crisis for Trump's campaign and strengthened the rationale for the US Supreme Court to take up the issue, arising from Section 3 of the 14th Amendment's "insurrectionist ban." It has also exacerbated the crisis already surrounding the election and could cause ever wider national divides.

Analysts are drawing attention that other key ballot deadlines are also pending. On the other side of the electoral box is the contentious comment made by Trump's ascendant rival Nicky Haley that claimed that slavery tore the United States apart more than 160 years ago. This has also created confusion about her future efforts in being the desired candidate for the Presidential nomination in the coming race. This has led some political analysts to gain an impression that on issues like race and the Civil War, she has often equivocated about history's truths for her own political gain. While her comments might not be considered as significant enough in deep red State primaries, they might complicate her effort to win over independent voters who can join the GOP primary in New Hampshire and who she needs to help her reduce Trump's lead in the polls.

It has been pointed out by Collinson that interestingly "the drama surrounding the former South Carolina governor less than three weeks before voting starts is also having the effect of easing the scrutiny on Trump - who has caused many more scandals and outrages during his gravity-defying political career, many of which are related to the 2020 election denialism behind his swirling legal exposure". Maine's decision appears to have only expanded the unprecedented legal and political tangle surrounding the 2024 campaign - all of which stem from Trump's refusal to accept defeat and his historic challenge to the US transfer of power. Two States have now already backed the idea that found that a former president engaged in an insurrection against the US government - an unheard-of state of affairs at any other moment in history.

This has led those associated with Trump's campaign to issue a statement that "We are witnessing, in real-time, the attempted theft of an election and the disenfranchisement of the American voter. Democrats in blue states are recklessly and unconstitutionally suspending the civil rights of the American voters by attempting to summarily remove President Trump's name from the ballot." Such a claim has now been described as highly sarcastic, since Trump is still denying the result of the 2020 election, which was followed by his attempt to disenfranchise voters, including in key swing states that voted for Biden.

We know that subsequently Trump's claims of voter fraud were considered unacceptable by many Courts and judicial authorities. Nevertheless, such a past does not appear to have urged to refrain from putting them at the centre of his 2024 campaign, which according to Collinson "has become a vehicle for accusing Biden of the very transgression which Trump perpetrated - election interference".

In addition, Haley has been unwilling to directly reproach Trump to avoid alienating GOP primary voters among whom he remains hugely popular. And even if that tactic works for her in New Hampshire, she still would face a showdown a month later in her home state of South Carolina, where Trump is massively popular.

Haley's rivals have already started to gain ground over her lack of care in expressing the historical past. As expected, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who earlier in 2023 had to face a controversy over the teaching of slavery in his state's schools has declared that she "is not a candidate that's ready for prime-time." Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has also seized on her troubles to bolster his refusal to bow out of the race.

DeSantis, who has already visited all of Iowa's 99 counties, has begun a state-wide events programme in Ankeny and Marion, and may also be seen with Iowa Governor Kim Reynolds, who handed him his most important endorsement, in Clayton County, in eastern Iowa recently.

Analyst S. Collinson appears to have correctly noted that the emerging troubles for Haley and Trump's legal difficulties clearly underline the difficulties and challenges that the Republicans are facing in their efforts to take on the Democrat Party's campaign efforts. Nevertheless, one has to note here that before Colorado, several other US States, like Minnesota and Michigan had rejected similar efforts to downgrade the chances of Trump. In fact, apparently, California's Secretary of State released a certified list of candidates that includes the former President.

Such a scenario indicates that different States now have different views of the Constitution and Trump's eligibility to run again. Collinson has interestingly observed that this also means that it is almost obligatory on the US Supreme Court to step in and use their constitutional powers to further empower their strategic importance. In this context they need to address two separate issues-- first, whether the constitutional ban on insurrectionists holding office also applies in the case of the former President, and second, for the sake of justice decide whether a single State can simply decide that a candidate engaged in an insurrection without offering due process.

The controversy, however, also raises new questions over whether efforts to make Trump pay for January 6 are justified on the grounds of protecting America's democracy from a uniquely pernicious challenge or will it backfire politically against President Joe Biden and Democrats next fall. The multiple criminal charges Trump is facing have tended to hike his popularity among base voters even though his wild anti-democratic conduct in 2020 could be a major general election liability. This has also led Chris Christie, another Republican Presidential candidate to observe in comments with CNN that instead of legal measures, Donald Trump should be allowed to run in the election and then be defeated by the voters in the polls. 

In any case Republican presidential candidates are realising that their time for campaigning is running out. This is so because they are still not sure whether the 2024 race will be without Trump.  In the meantime, there is a lot of anger and criticism that is surfacing from potential candidates. They also know that voters will begin to decide on January 15 in the Iowa Republican caucuses as to who will carry their banner into November's election.

Joe Biden, meanwhile, has spent some time towards the end of 2023 holidaying in the US Virgin Islands, enjoying some peaceful moments in a world facing problems not only because of conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine but also because of the difficulties that his Administration is facing due to volatile situations in Africa and China.

Some analysts have also focused on another dimension. They are suggesting that Biden is still considering whether he should join the group of one-term Presidents or seek reelection. In this regard Collinson has drawn attention to the fact that Biden's advisory group has been slightly worried about his latest low approval ratings, concerns about his age and signs that his 2020 coalition is splintering.

Nevertheless, President Biden has demonstrated recently through his visits to Israel that he is fit and ready to take on another four years in the White House.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
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