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The new dimensions are casting long shadows and raising questions about the connotations and denotations pertaining to different executive measures being initiated by President Trump - the 47th US President who has just been sworn into Office.
Analysts have pointed out that the return of Donald Trump to the White House for a second term has reignited discussions about the global implications of his policies, particularly on trade, defence, immigration, and geopolitics. For Bangladesh, a strategically located South Asian nation, these shifts demand careful analysis and a proactive approach to managing its bilateral relationship with the US. It has also been observed that Trump's first Presidency (2017-2021) introduced a "transactional" approach to diplomacy under the "America First" doctrine. This time, there is a likelihood of exacerbating existing challenges.
In the meantime, Trump's pledge to launch a "tariff war," and his idea of the US imposing a universal tariff on all foreign goods has created anxiety among the Bangladeshi business community and several financial institutions have been suggesting that the government should take proactive measures, such as exploring and diversifying markets and products, engaging in diplomatic initiatives, and strengthening regional and bilateral ties with other nations. It is also being suggested that the government should engage with the Bangladeshi expatriate community in the US to build a stronger relationship with the Trump administration.
European countries, on the other hand, are clearly feeling "deep trepidation" about a second Trump term. They perceive that Europe has much to lose on the security side as well as on economic cooperation. There are also real concerns that Trump might push them harder on tariffs, on China, and be a very disruptive force to the G7- a forum for some of the world's largest economies and also has been a very positive venue for collaborating, cooperating on economic and security issues. Some have even speculated that they are concerned that we may be looking at a G6 - not a G7 in the future.
EU Chief Ursula von der Leyen declared on January 21 that Europe was ready to negotiate with US President Donald Trump but the bloc will also seek to improve ties with China and other nations as global competition heats up. Von der Leyen insisted that the United States remains an important partner, taking a conciliatory tone in a speech delivered recently in the annual meeting of global elites in Davos, Switzerland. The EU's "first priority will be to engage early, discuss common interests, and be ready to negotiate with Trump. We will be pragmatic, but we will always stand by our principles. To protect our interests and uphold our values," she said.
Such anxiety has surfaced after Trump returned to the White House on January 20- bringing with him fears he will deliver on promises to slap heavy tariffs on China and US allies including Canada and the European Union. However, subsequently, Trump has hinted at a softer stance on China.
Trump has once again withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, an international climate accord designed to reduce emissions. He had previously pulled the US out of the deal in 2019 during his first term, although Biden rejoined it in 2021. At Davos, Trump in his digital reference has once again described the Paris climate accord as "one-sided". He has also repeated his pledge to "unlock" US fossil fuel reserves and promised "rapid approvals" for energy ventures. Trump also mocked his political adversaries for advancing a "Green New Deal", a slate of policy proposals in the US designed to bring down carbon emissions.
In response the UN's climate chief has said that the science of global warming had been "weaponised" by politics, with Donald Trump withdrawing the United States from the Paris Agreement. Simon Stiell said that shifting geopolitical events could not change the hard facts that underpin climate change and the disastrous consequences linked to a warming planet. In this context, one needs to remember that last year was the hottest on record. Stiell said that support for climate science was "far, far more significant than those few voices that challenge it. Science has actually been weaponised, and again that is reflective of politics," he told an audience at the latest session of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
Asian markets have also seen big fluctuations after Donald Trump took over his Presidency. This has resulted due to his comments that came as he signed a slew of executive orders that indicated he could resume his hardball approach to global diplomacy and trade, including pulling out of the Paris climate accord and the World Health Organisation.
It may be noted here that in his inaugural address he observed that he would "immediately begin the overhaul of our trade system to protect American workers and families. Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries, we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens."
Trump's "America First" approach to ending the war in Ukraine also extends to the strategic issue of the future of NATO. Trump has long been a sceptic of the alliance, accusing Europe of free-riding on America's promise of protection. Whether he would actually withdraw the US from NATO, which would signal the most significant shift in transatlantic defence relations in nearly a century, remains a matter of debate. Some of his allies suggest his hard line is just a negotiating tactic to get members to meet the alliance's defence spending guidelines. Nevertheless, the reality is that NATO leaders will be seriously worried about what his victory means for the Alliance's future and how its deterrent effect is perceived by hostile leaders.
Trump's re-election to the top seat of a superpower and the continued rise of the ultra-right in the US signal a shift in America's view of the world and its international commitment to uphold human rights and promote peace and stability. As before, Trump's America-first policies may significantly impact international affairs where belligerent competitiveness may outweigh reason and compromise.
On the other hand, there is hope that Trump, who has taken credit for brokering the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, may influence an end to the Russia-Ukraine war as well-two biggest international crises in recent years. We, however, hope that his recent scepticism about this ceasefire will not result in another unfair deal for Palestinians, who have already suffered decades of repression by Israel with the support of the US's one-sided policy.
Another connotation has surfaced through the presence of many prominent tech giants at Trump's inaugural ceremony. It is being indicated that this should be taken seriously. The re-emergence of an ultra-nationalist leader could have serious consequences for the world, particularly in a nuclear and tech-driven era. This is being perceived as an alarming factor by many small nations in different parts of the world.
However, a legal backlash to Trump's second term has already begun, with rights groups and state governments firing an early salvo against the Republican's day-one decision to overhaul birthright citizenship. The executive order, which Trump signed hours after taking the oath of office, prohibits federal agencies from issuing documents that affirm US citizenship or recognise documents claiming to recognise US citizenship by birth. Two dozen Democratic-led states and cities have challenged such Trump decision in Court on the basis that it violates the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which gives a constitutional right of citizenship to all children born in the United States. It may be recalled that birthright citizenship, where anyone born on US soil is automatically granted citizenship, was not originally part of the US constitution, but was added in 1868 after the Civil War, to address citizenship of freed, American-born former slaves. Organisations including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the Legal Defence Fund have started filing lawsuits calling Trump's actions unconstitutional, that are likely to test the limit of his executive power.
The new US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on his first full day in office on January 21, has also warned Japan, India and Australia against coercive actions in Asia, in a veiled but clear warning to China over its actions at sea. Rubio and his counterparts in a joint statement also promised to work toward a "free and open Indo-Pacific."
President Donald Trump in his first international speech of his second term, appearing via live-stream before the World Economic Forum has also taken a combative approach to international diplomacy. He seemed to have reserved special ire for the EU, which he accused of imposing cumbersome regulations and attacking US businesses. He referred in this context to antitrust cases against US-based tech titans like - Apple and Google - and also indicated that the EU is now thinking of going after Facebook. He implied that the cases were motivated, in part, on the companies' country of origin.
It may be noted that the US is the EU's top trading partner, and as of 2022, the US had a US Dollar 131 billion trade deficit with the 27-nation bloc. Economists have observed that deficits and imbalance in trade can be the result of numerous factors, including differences in currency value and consumer spending habits. However, Trump has zeroed in on trade deficits as a sign of economic weakness, and he has once again pledged to eliminate them, as he vowed in his first term.
It would also be important to recall here that during his first term, Trump withdrew from multilateral trade agreements and emphasised bilateral deals, often using trade relations as leverage for broader political goals. This approach, this time, could have serious repercussions for Bangladesh, which relies on preferential trade agreements and access to foreign markets for its economic growth. The Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) programme for Bangladesh, suspended in 2013, might now face further delays under the Trump Administration.
Bangladesh consequently, must diversify its export markets beyond traditional partners, particularly in Europe and North America. Additionally, improving compliance with international labour and environmental standards is imperative. Dhaka should accordingly actively engage in economic diplomacy, presenting itself as a stable and reliable partner in an era of shifting global trade dynamics.
Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance. muhammadzamir0@gmail.com