Lebanon has become a cause of international concern

For the last few weeks Israel has been trying to generate civil discord in Lebanon, hitting targets far from Hezbollah-controlled areas, spreading panic and fear across Lebanon. This evolving scenario has drawn the attention of analysts M. Nashed and S.S. Cordall. On an average more than 15 persons are being killed or seriously injured daily in different parts of Lebanon, as a consequence of Israeli air attacks. One such sad day was October 14, when Israeli bombardment labeled a three-story building and killed 22 people in the northern Christian-majority Lebanese village of Aitou. Among them, 12 were women and 2 children. The residence had recently been rented out to a family displaced from the south, and the UN has called for an investigation pertaining to this attack. Israel subsequently claimed that it had struck a "Hezbollah target", but the attack was on a predominantly Christian town.

 On October 16, Israel indiscriminately carpet-bombed Nabatieh, a provincial capital in south Lebanon effectively reducing it to wasteland. The Israeli air attack included bombing of the Municipal Headquarters, killing 16 people including the Mayor. It was the largest attack on a state building since Israel first escalated its bombing campaign against Hezbollah on September 22.

Lebanon, it may be mentioned, has been historically exploited by regional States for their own geopolitical goals-- by dividing the country's political factions and religious communities. Such an approach has led to each religious community living in relatively segregated areas and neighbourhoods in Lebanon - largely an outcome of previous violent conflicts that degenerated into sectarian violence and led to the mass displacement of communities.

Middle East strategic experts have recalled that the attack on Aitou reminded them of Lebanon's 15-year civil war from 1975 to 1990, when the country got dragged into the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict and descended into multi-faceted fighting. Now, Israel's war - ostensibly against Hezbollah - is threatening to destabilise the entire country again. Thousands of people, particularly, the displaced elderly, women and children have been seeking safety in other neighbourhoods with different communities. Such instability has also included many of foreign origin who are working in Lebanon.

Media reports have indicated that quite a few Bangladeshis have also fallen victims. It is understood that relevant offices of our Interim Government are taking steps to bring them back. The first batch of 54 Bangladeshi expatriates returned from Lebanon on October 21 evening. Since then, many more have also returned. 

According to Ori Goldberg, an Israeli commentator on political affairs, Israel appears to be applying the same open-ended discourse and military tactics in Lebanon as it has done in Gaza. Goldberg has observed, "Israel feels like it can target anything it regards as a military position, irrespective of who may be there, just like in Gaza".

Karim Emilie Bitar, a Professor of International Relations at the Saint Joseph University of Beirut, believes that the areas Israel is hitting outside of South Lebanon do not have any military or strategic importance. He has observed that there seems to be two dimensions in Israel's attacks-- (a) an intention to foster civil strife in Lebanon and (b) also send a message to Christians in particular to be careful and not welcome Shia refugees. K.E. Bitar feels that such an approach by Israel could lead to a deepening of the fault lines in Lebanon and it will make their people increasingly cautious, and "it could sooner or later provoke serious incidents and civil strife."

Yahiya from the Carnegie Centre has also added that in many cases, displaced people have been prohibited from moving into buildings or evicted from areas they recently moved into as people in various communities are increasingly "terrified" of having neighbours they do not know and who may be targeted by Israel.

Such a scenario quite obviously, is creating a politics of fear and also stoking sectarian fire. .

The International Organisation for Migration has recorded over 600,000 internally displaced people in Lebanon since the start of hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. This figure has since risen to nearly one million. Only about 200,000 of the displaced have found their way to organised shelters. The majority of the people are now out of sight, staying in makeshift accommodations, or renting out homes at highly inflated prices. There are many others trying to find shelter in the homes of friends and relatives, or abandoned houses and high-rises. The Lebanese government in its own way, despite the existing instability, has rolled out basic structures within emergency shelters and has also started to designate focal points to manage aid distribution. Many Lebanese restaurants are also giving out free meals.

It may be recalled that Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated the stoking of anxiety and made his intentions known during his televised address to the Lebanese people on October 8, warning that they could face "destruction like Gaza" unless they acted now to "save Lebanon" from Hezbollah. His remarks indicated that Israel aims to reshape the politics of Lebanon, belying his earlier claims that Israel would launch a limited operation in south Lebanon to allow thousands of displaced Israelis to return to their homes in north Israel across the border.

Sami Halabi, Director of Policy at the Alternative Policy Institute has observed that Lebanon's displacement crisis could tear the country apart from within and at the same time lead to a civil strife in the war-torn country. If such a scenario continues unchecked, the situation could be more devastating than the war itself.

It is clear that fear and sectarian distrust are now unraveling Lebanon's fragile social fabric and threatening its stability. Communities in Christian and Druze-majority areas, fearing that hosting displaced families from Hezbollah-linked regions will drag them into the conflict, are increasingly hesitant to open their doors. Recent reports of Israel targeting rental properties housing displaced people are also stoking  these fears and further discouraging hosting displaced people. This dread is also driving policy decisions. Some municipalities have already declared it too dangerous to host internally displaced persons due to fears Israel will target them.

This shift in displacement patterns threatens to tear into Lebanon's fragile sectarian balance, and obviously it is the displaced people who are the most vulnerable. 

The government's emergency plan provides a barebones framework, but the reality on the ground is desperate. Solutions like prefab shelters and repurposing government-owned buildings, including those under the control of Lebanon's central bank, have been proposed but no visible action is yet in sight. The displaced - whether Lebanese, Syrian, or any other marginalised group - must have legal protection against forced evictions, and the government must guarantee them access to basic services like water, electricity, and sanitation.

AFP has reported that analyst Michael Young of the Carnegie Middle East Centre think tank observed that Hezbollah's losses have left Lebanon in a "tug of war between Iran and the United States. The Israelis with the Americans... are trying to use military force to try to transform the balance of power in Lebanon to their advantage. However, there are no signs that the Iranians are going to accept this without a fight."

Kim Ghattas, author of "Black Wave", a book on the Saudi-Iran rivalry, said: "Lebanon is caught between Iran and Hezbollah on the one hand, and Israel and the US on the other. But Washington's vision does not necessarily align with Israel's in terms of war goals and tactics. The US would certainly like to see a weakening of Hezbollah, maybe even the disarming of the group, but it is wary of Israel going too far with the military campaign."

It would, however, be important to understand that as the Israel-Lebanon situation and the Hezbollah war nears its one-month mark, calls have mounted for Lebanon to elect a President after a two-year void due to political deadlock. Political leaders in Lebanon, too, have made careful appeals for a new President, trying to avoid impressions they were leveraging Hezbollah's setbacks for political gain. This evolving situation has emerged because suspicion between sects has grown since the Israeli-Hezbollah war and forced displaced Shia communities into Christian-majority areas. Many are now wary of a repeat of Lebanon's previous 15-year war that took place a few decades ago. They are also now recalling the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 that led to sectarianism and the creation of Hezbollah, one of Israel's most formidable foes.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
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