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The frequent low-intensity tremors felt in various parts of Bangladesh due to earthquakes in neighbouring countries serve as a grim reminder of the country's seismic vulnerability. Over the past 10 days, Bangladesh has experienced four earthquakes. The most recent one, on Wednesday, had its epicentre approximately 449 kilometres from Dhaka in the border region between India and Myanmar. Despite the distance, it sent a moderate shockwave through Dhaka, registering a magnitude of 5.6 on the Richter scale.
The frequency of low to moderate-intensity earthquakes has been steadily increasing in recent years. According to the Meteorological Department, 28 earthquakes were recorded in Bangladesh and nearby regions in 2017. This number rose to 41 in 2023 and further increased to 54 last year, marking the highest number in eight years.
Even though tremors originating from nearby countries may not always directly and severely impact the country, it does not mean Bangladesh is at a safe distance or that earthquakes pose no real threat. In reality, Bangladesh lies in an active earthquake zone, situated near the meeting points of three major tectonic plates and four active seismic sources in the Bay of Bengal, which have the potential to generate tremors exceeding 7.0 in magnitude. Experts warn that the series of small quakes frequently shaking Dhaka, Sylhet, and Chittagong could be precursors to a devastating seismic event.
Indeed, seismologists have long warned that a powerful earthquake is not a matter of 'if' but 'when.' The fact that Bangladesh has not experienced a major tremor in the past two hundred years only increases the likelihood of a catastrophic event. The last major earthquake to impact the region was the 1897 Great Indian Earthquake of the Shillong Plateau, which jolted the northeastern part of the country with a magnitude of 8.7.
An earthquake often proves more devastating than other natural calamities because, unlike storms, floods, and droughts, it cannot be predicted with precision. When prevention is impossible, the focus must shift to damage limitation, immediate rescue, relief, and rehabilitation. But is Bangladesh prepared?
While the country has experience in dealing with floods and cyclones, it lacks the capacity to handle a major earthquake. In past incidents, when multi-storied structures collapsed for various reasons, the fire service took an inordinately long time to clear the rubble. Even in cases of fire outbreaks, the fire department struggles to bring blazes under control swiftly. This highlights the lack of advanced equipment and expertise required for clearing debris, cutting through concrete, and rescuing trapped victims. A key priority, therefore, should be to equip the Fire Service and Civil Defence, along with other emergency response organisations, with the necessary resources.
A major earthquake presents the grim prospect of a human catastrophe in Bangladesh, primarily due to the prevalence of a substantial number of unsafe buildings. An estimate suggests that 72,000 out of 2.1 million structures in Dhaka are highly unstable. However, no significant measures have been taken to demolish these buildings or relocate and rehabilitate their residents. Following the Rana Plaza collapse, BUET proposed a comprehensive initiative to classify Dhaka's buildings based on earthquake resistance. Under this plan, high-risk buildings were to be marked red, moderate-risk structures yellow, and earthquake-resistant buildings green. However, this crucial assessment remains incomplete for most structures. The authorities, therefore, must prioritise identifying high-risk buildings, demolishing unsafe structures, and reinforcing weaker ones.
Earthquake preparedness demands massive preparation, investment in advanced rescue equipment, comprehensive emergency response training and raising public awareness. Without immediate and decisive action, a catastrophic loss of life remains an imminent threat.