Dramatic turn of events in Syria

More than half a century long dynastic rule of Syria by the Assad family is over with the rebels taking control of Damascus on Sunday (December 8). The fate of Bashar al-Assad, who succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad as the president of Syria in 2000 after the latter's death, was shrouded in mystery after the rebels stormed Damascus. However, CNN reports that Assad has flown to Moscow and Russia has granted him and his family political asylum.

The rebels comprise a complex group of militants including mainly the Hayat Tahrir  al-Sham (HTS) led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, an al-Qaeda breakaway, and the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), a coalition of Syrian opposition forces created during the Syrian civil war that started in 2011 as president Assad cracked down on the pro-democracy agitators in the wake of the Arab Spring. The situation in Syria is still in a state of flux and it is too early to say who is in real control and how it is going to end up. Many among those observing the developments in Syria have been taken by surprise at the dramatic change of events leading to the collapse of the Assad regime in a matter of days. In fact, it started on November 27 when a HTS-led coalition of anti-government forces launched a major offensive against the government-controlled Aleppo from the neighbouring opposition-held city of Idlib. And in three days, the rebel fighters occupied Aleppo. The fall of Aleppo created a domino effect leading to the collapse of one city after another and it was all over with the fall of Damascus on December 6.  

Is it purely a coincidence that the rebels rose to prominence after a long slumber and then drove the Assad regime out of power when the Lebanese Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah was reaching a peace deal with Israel? Notably, Hezbollah played a key role in turning the tide of Syrian civil war following its active participation (in the war) in 2012-13. The November 27, 2024's Hezbollah-Israel's two-month-ceasefire is to some observer the indication of a war-weary and weakened Hezbollah. So, have the Syrian rebels taken advantage of this situation to start the lightning offensive against the government forces? Even so, their stunning success in the offensive raises another big question. Which big power is backing them? Obviously, it is not Russia or Iran, for they have been the main backers of the Assad regime. Of course, the regional power Turkey has a role to play as it openly condemned the way president Assad ruthlessly crushed the country's pro-democracy movement in 2011 and supported the rebels from the very beginning of the civil war. Then what is the position of the US in Assad's ouster from power? The outgoing US president Joe Biden has been rather cautious in his administration's response as he said they were monitoring the developments in Syria, while the president-elect Donald Trump's reaction as expressed on the social media was rather noncommittal as he said that Syria's was not a US problem.

So, it cannot be said with certainty if what has happened to Syria is an act of regime change by any particular world power. In fact, the rebels who toppled Assad regime are regarded with suspicion by the big powers. The leading group, HTS, for instance, was considered a terrorist outfit by the US. Moreover, the loose coalition of rebel forces now calling the shots in Syria may fall apart any time resulting in a fresh round of infighting among the contenders of power. In that case, the resulting chaos may spill over into neighbouriing countries destabilising the entire Middle East. Such an eventuality can be avoided if only the regional and global powers behave responsibly to stop further bloodshed in Syria.

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