Ensuring data reliability

The lack of reliable data has long been a major problem in Bangladesh that hindered the effort to accurately assess the demand and supply of various goods, evaluate macroeconomic performance and set evidence-based policies. For instance, according to the Department of Agriculture, 3.4 million tonnes of onions were produced in Bangladesh last year, against a total demand of 3.2 million tonnes. Yet the country experienced onion price spikes whenever India imposed export restrictions, ultimately leading Bangladesh to import about 0.8 million tonnes from India last year alone. This highlights the need for accurate up-to-date data to support effective policymaking.

There is a saying that "numbers don't lie," but when statistics are manipulated or presented with ulterior motives, they fail to reflect reality. The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), the centralised authority for demographic, economic, and social data, has faced significant criticism for failing to present credible data.

There are two primary shortcomings in the statistical department: a lack of skilled personnel and the politicisation of data. To support its development narrative, the ousted Hasina regime has brazenly politicsed and used BBS to manipulate data. As a result, public confidence in its data has diminished, with many questioning the accuracy of official statistics on issues such as GDP growth, export and trade figures, reserves, per capita income and revenue collection.

Such politicisation of data has complicated the process of setting national economic goals and formulating sound policies. The distorted figures have not only created distrust among domestic businesses and investors, but also shaken the confidence of international stakeholders. Historically. it has been observed time and again that when statistics are made to serve politics, they negatively  affect policymaking, putting the entire economy at risk. Policies built on such inaccurate data have left the economy vulnerable to shock and instability.

Given this context, it is crucial to insulate statistics from political influence to protect macroeconomic stability. This issue should be a top priority for any interim government aiming to revive the economy. Recently, the government has proposed publishing a white paper outlining the current economic conditions and recommended actions. Additionally, there are discussions about establishing a Data Commission to verify the accuracy of economic data. This commission would review statistics produced by the BBS, the Economic Relations Department (ERD), and the Central Bank, which could significantly improve data reliability.

In 2014, Bangladesh received a score of 80 out of 100 in the World Bank's Statistical Capacity Indicator, with a Methodology or Systematic Index score of 70. However, both scores have consistently declined since then, with the systematic score dropping to 30 by 2020. Improving these scores is essential to restore global confidence in Bangladesh's statistics. Efforts must be made to enhance the methodological rigour and transparency of the country's data collection processes.

To achieve sustainable data reliability, the BBS should be made an independent body, free from external influence. Currently, the BBS requires approval from the Prime Minister's Office, the Planning Minister, or other authorities to publish data-a process that compromises the bureau's autonomy. Transforming the BBS into a fully independent commission, endowed with executive powers and adequate resources, would bolster its capacity to produce unbiased, accurate statistics. Such reforms are necessary not only for effective policymaking but also to build public and international trust in Bangladesh's economic data.

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