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A sort of "cold war" is on between the US and China. Since the 2000s when the Chinese economy exploded and began to reach the US shores, tensions have been rising. In 2008 when the North American economy hit the doldrums, US economists knew "big production" China could help out and briefly there were smiles on both sides. So initially China was welcome as a junior partner. But it soon became obvious that China had its own plans and was ready to spar as equals.
Soon enough, just after the US had thought that the world was now going to be led by the US alone with the demise of the Soviet Union, China arrived on the scene. A more efficient contender than the previous foe Soviet Union had arrived on the horizon. Cold war II began in earnest and goes on. But the cold war concept is based on medieval religious morality and very outdated. And both sides seem to realize this.
THE DENIAL PHASE AND GLOBAL ELDERLY LEADERSHIP
How does one explain the current state of relationship between China and the US because the difference between the previous edition and the current one is obvious?
The last one was led by two mentally geriatric inter-generational leaders based on ideology as a substitute for religion. And one collapsed spectacularly. The Soviet Union may have had many great sides but it had increasingly become a celebration of inefficiency. Inefficient structures don't last in history and SU was the most scary example. This time however, both powers are based on economic growth not ideology which means the war may last longer simply because of both power's internal strength. And the chances of history "ending" is much less. Some remember the gloating of the US establishment and its writer Francis Fukuyama's "End of History" book which had predicted the end of wars with the fall of the Soviet Union. It turned out to be very false optimism.
One aspect that both China and the US would like to deny is the religious-ideological colours of the cold war which is largely an economic war. In late 2022, the US banned selling advanced semiconductors to China on the ground that it was military equipment. True. But it also meant denying Chinese medical researchers, agriculturalists, educators, and the rest which are not military. The US anxiety is obvious. It doesn't know how to deal with a market competitor except demonizing it as one does in religious conflicts including the previous edition of the cold war.
The once developing state of China of the 70s is now the US's most serious economic rival. That hurts. And the US ideological leadership is still with the elderly who grew up with the notion of the historic call of the cavalry to unlock the chained. They haven't yet come to terms with the fact that no one uses horses in a war anymore.
CHINA : OVERCOMING PAST IDEOLOGICAL POLITICS
China is very active in its own custom designed capitalist framework which comes without the social perks of "human rights, protests " etc. China publicly remains committed to an ideological platform. However, that Ideology is a major obstacle to economic growth is increasingly being recognized there. by the Chinese leadership at least partially. Its recent slogan adopted at the last Congress when Xi Jin Ping became a boss for life sort of admits that by declaring "Economics is politics. "
This is a far cry from the Maoist jargon driven China of the yesteryears even two decades back. Ideology was everything, rest a servant to that. But here the hint is clear. What works economically is what works politically. In China it's much easier to stay in power in a period when economic and other difficulties arise. But that happens by exerting control on protests and other challenges in the name of an ideological state.
Both China and the US are pretending to be "ideological" states when they are fundamentally like all economic states. And both are in trouble not just with each other but their own people and allies. Most think that Taiwan is going to lead to a war - possible- but the Ukraine war has shown that the cost of such wars is high and hurts even distant partners. The recent Blinken visit shows how both are trying to deal with reality.
Supporters on various sides make many claims about who is winning or losing in Ukraine but nobody disagrees that the powers that matter , Russia, US and EU -have suffered. Nor have they exactly displayed the level of intelligence that is required of powers who wish to gain from war. However, the mess has been a good teacher but that doesn't mean the students are so great that they have all learnt the lessons.
Both China and the US have a strong "politics as religion" lobby and they are unable to come to terms with the fact that nature/world/etc are not ideology but function based. Both the arms lobby and the think tanks are hell bent on making Taiwan a big issue so most literature focuses on this but reality is biting.
However, the signals are that the global power market is a reality and the oligopolistic framework of one power or two power domination days are over. The last decade has seen the rise of many blocs which are small but together are exerting pressure. As global politics shifts to an open market dynamics driven framework, the days of 2/3 countries domination will decline. The new reality doesn't appeal to the older leadership brought up in the ideology/religious environment but the digital generation may well change. In fact Blinken's visit to China is a good indicator that reality kicks in whether one likes it or not.
However, one needs to survive till then.