Ceasefire in Gaza: what next?

For the second time, in the one and a half year long war of attrition unleashed by Israel, a ceasefire has come into effect from January 19, one day before the inauguration of Donald Trump as the president of United States. This time the ceasefire is broader in scope and has a longer timeframe than the first one that took place for a week, from 24 November to 30 November in 2023. A total of 70 Israeli hostages were released by Hamas then, against 210 Palestinian prisoners held by Israelis. At the end of the truce on 30 November, another one day extension was agreed upon by both sides for further release of Israelis and Palestinians but the truce ended with Hamas blaming the Israelis for violation of terms of agreement.

In May, 2024, as the war in Gaza entered eight months, Egyptian and Qatari officials, working with American counterparts, worked out a ceasefire deal which was accepted by Hamas but rejected by Israel. Later, President Biden announced that Israel had agreed to a three- phase ceasefire and this time the American proposal was placed before the UN Security Council which adopted the same. But the Israeli prime minister rejected the deal and continued with the war.

On December 2, 2025, the president-elect, Donald Trump, posted in social media that hostages held by Hamas have to be released before his inauguration on January 20 or else 'all hell will break lose'. It was a very unusual statement coming from the president incumbent, using strong-arm tactics of underworld characters. It was obvious that his threat was directed at Hamas. There was gallows' humour in the threat because the Palestinians, including Hamas, were already living in hell, courtesy the devastations wrought by Israeli defence force (IDF) in Gaza.

As the interminable negotiations continued in the Qatari capital and in Cairo, representatives of the incoming Trump administration joined the Biden-era American officials. In addition, president-elect Trump sent his middle-east trouble-shooter, Steve Witcoff, to hold talks with Netanyahu and other stake-holders. It requires little imagination to conclude that the input by president elect Trump, particularly through backdoor diplomacy, using carrot and stick, pulled off the elusive ceasefire deal. Discussion on what may be embodied in the 'carrot and the stick' policy can be postponed until the terms of the present ceasefire agreement are briefly reviewed.

The present ceasefire, like the one negotiated in May last year, has three phases. During the first phase, covering six weeks from January 19, Hamas will release 33 hostages in several batches. In return, Israel will release several hundred Palestinians kept in prison, also in batches. Both sides will release children and women on priority basis. The lists of persons to be released have to be sent in advance for vetting by each side.

The second term in the agreement for the first phase provides for withdrawal of Israeli army from densely populated areas like northern Gaza and allowing displaced Palestinians to return to their former places of residence.

Under the third clause, about 600 trucks would be allowed to enter Gaza, carrying food, fuel, medicine and other essential items.

Except the second, the other two terms can be complied with by both parties without much hitch. The second is somewhat sensitive because Israeli army may regard withdrawal as surrender to Hamas. Here political leadership will play a big role. The Israeli cabinet, comprising extreme rightists, is divided over the ceasefire issue. One coalition party has already resigned from the cabinet.  The second extremist party in the coalition has given notice and is bidding for time. Much depends on the political will of prime minister Netenyahu and his skill for manoeuvring. This, in turn, will depend on his motivation. If he is concerned with only saving his skin by staying in power with the help of extremists, he may renege on the ceasefire even during the first phase. But it is quite  probable that he will take a chance during the first phase on this issue hoping to counter the pressure  from coalition  extremist  parties with the release of Israelis kept as hostages for nearly a year and a half. The demand for their release has become a popular movement which none of the political parties can go on ignoring. So, the willingness of Israeli politicians, even if with reservations, can be expected to play a role in keeping the ceasefire alive and well. As regards Hamas, there is no problem for them with releasing the hostages if there is reciprocity from the Israeli side in releasing Palestinian prisoners according to agreed numbers. But their compliance with the terms of ceasefire deal will also depend on the withdrawal of Israeli army from northern Gaza.

The second phase of the ceasefire agreement gains in  complexity  as  it envisages release of remaining Israeli  hostages  and of Palestinian prisoners by concerned parties, complete withdrawal of Israeli  army from Gaza, including Philadelphi corridor and holding discussions  on establishment of  permanent  peace in the region. Here again, the withdrawal of Israeli army completely from Gaza is problematic for the same reason mentioned above. The question of who will represent the Palestinians in the peace talks can become a stumbling bloc as Hamas is likely to assert its right to represent the Gazan Palestinians. The fact that there has been no popular protest against their role in the war in Gaza strengthens their case. By all appearances, the Palestinians feel proud of their patriotism and determination to resist Israeli occupation. In contrast, the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank lacks popular support for its submissive role vis-à-vis Israel and rampant corruption. America and Israel should realise that without Hamas participation in peace talks a permanent political settlement will be elusive.

During the third and final phase the remains of the dead hostages will be returned by Hamas and reconstruction of Gaza will take place. For the implementation of the first  part, no problem  is foreseen other than the wilful scuttling of the ceasefire  deal by Israel. As regards reconstruction of Gaza, since it will take years for completion, temporary shelters for Gazans have to be provided, complete with civic and medical facilities.  Several tent towns, each self-sufficient to meet the needs of its residents, have to be built in various parts of Gaza strip. Any idea of relocating the Gazans elsewhere, as is being casually bandied about now, runs into the face of reality. If not a single  Gazan family tried  to leave  their homeland  under round  the clock  bombing by Israelis  during the past one year and a half, how can they be expected to be willing  to go to another place now? The Palestinians in Gaza love their homeland and no amount of inducement or coercion will succeed in weaning them away from their soil. This should be recognised as a tribute to their sufferings, courage and fortitude. The heroism of ordinary Palestinians that has made them survivors of one of the horrifying genocide in history is of epic proportions.  To ask them to move out in the name of reconstruction of Gaza would be a humiliation and agony that they do not deserve.

Now an attempt can be made to answer the question as to  what led prime minister Natanyahu to accept the ceasefire deal that he had rejected in May last year. President Trump is a transactional man, having learnt the essence of deal making in his real estate business. At the heart of deal making is give and take. In the ceasefire deal not only carrots were used but also stick. Using the latter, Trump may have told Netanyahu through his emissary that unless he agreed to the deal arms shipment would be halted and his government  would go along with the order of the International  Criminal Court (ICC) and arrest him. But more than the stick, President Trump may have used the carrot of recognising the annexation of West Bank just as he did in the case of Golan Heights during his first term. That this is not a figment of imagination is borne out by the fact that on the first day in office as President he reversed the decision of President Biden and cancelled imposition of sanctions on 17 settlers and 16 entities in the occupied West Bank. This clearly paves the way to the annexation of West Bank, as a whole or in part, by Israel and anointing of the same by Trump administration. If Netanyahu is rewarded with this 'crown in the jewel', he can entice back the right-wing members of Knesset who have revolted over the ceasefire. The world will not have to wait for long to see if this is going to happen.

This write-up may be concluded by referring to the familiar reactions of Israeli government  about the maltreatment of Israeli hostages  at the hands of  Hamas during their captivity. This would be a blatant lie, not substantiated by evidence. On the contrary, the smiling  faces of the first three female hostages, in good health and clean  clothes, prove that even under the most  trying circumstances of constant bombardment and disruption of food and medicine supplies, the hostages were well looked after. The three hostages released looked cheerful and not at all indignant at their captors. They even accepted the small bag of gift given by Hamas gracefully and not perfunctorily and carried it all the way home. What better evidence can be there about the humane treatment of hostages by a group constantly being hunted down and forced to be on the run.

A ceasefire has been reached in Gaza. After a prolonged armed conflict that saw 47,000 Palestinians dead and hundreds of thousands injured and ninety per cent of infrastructures in Gaza reduced to rubbles, a window of opportunity has opened to make a clean break with the past. Whether this will happen depends largely on the goodwill of America and good sense of Israel. The Palestinians, as usual, are at the receiving end.

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