The evolving geo-political dimensions of BRICS in a multipolar world

Questions have been surfacing over the last few months about the United Nations (UN) and the exercise of veto power by the Permanent Members of the Security Council. This is being perceived as a stumbling block for resolving problems globally.

Such a scenario has led many countries in the world to hope that a unified, broad presence of BRICS might help resolve problematic issues.

There are queries about how to find the least common denominators in finding solutions to emerging serious dimensions pertaining to finding solution to the effects of climate change and climate vulnerability-- in the form of adaptation, mitigation and climate finance. In addition, there is also an effort towards finding investors in renewable energy. There are also other volatile issues that have emerged due to the conflicts in Gaza, Lebanon and Ukraine. Many countries are also taking note of the possibility of repatriation of refugees to their homelands after being forced to seek sanctuary in neighbouring countries-- as has happened in the case of the Rohingyas who fled and were also forced out of their homes in the Rakhine state of Myanmar.

Originally constituted to assist in the identification and highlighting of investment opportunities, the BRICS grouping has eventually evolved into an actual geopolitical bloc, with their governments meeting annually aimed at coordinating multilateral policies through formal Summits since 2009.

Currently, bilateral relations among BRICS are conducted mainly based on non-interference, equality, and mutual benefit.

It may also be noted that the initial four BRICs -- Brazil, Russia, India, and China -- met in New York City in September 2006 at the margin of the UN General Assembly, but held its first full-scale meeting in Yekaterinburg, Russia, on June 16,  2009.

South Africa joining the bloc a year later. Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates joined on January 1, 2024. Saudi Arabia has not joined officially as yet, but participates in the organisation's activities as an invited nation.

Analysts, consequently clearly identify BRICS as an intergovernmental economic-political organisation comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.

One needs to understand the importance of this Group through some statistics. Combined, the BRICS members encompass about 30 per cent of the world's land surface and 45 per cent of the global population. South Africa has the largest economy in Africa whereas Brazil, Russia, India, and China are among the world's ten largest countries by population, area, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and also in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP).

All five initial member states are also Members of the G20, with a combined nominal GDP of US Dollar 28 trillion which amounts to about 27 per cent of the Gross World Product, and a total GDP (PPP) of around US Dollar 57 trillion (33 per cent of global GDP PPP), and an estimated US Dollar 4.5 trillion in combined foreign reserves (as of 2018).

BRICS has expanded significantly since its 2009 inception as a group of four powers -- Brazil, Russia, India and China -- seeking an alternative platform to Western-led international organisations such as the G7. It now makes up nearly half of the world's population, 39 per cent of global GDP and weighs in on issues from Ukraine to Gaza to global trade.

The BRICS countries are considered as the foremost geopolitical rival to the G7 bloc comprising the leading advanced economies, implementing competing initiatives such as the New Development Bank, the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement. These data have originated from the BRICS Joint Statistical Publication. All these details have led to BRICS receiving both praise and criticism from numerous commentators.

Significantly, during its BRICS Presidency this year, Russia has tried to focus on "promoting the entire range of partnership and cooperation within the framework of the association on three key tracks - politics and security, economy and finance, and cultural and humanitarian ties. All of these have particular connotations. In an interview with Sky News Arabia on September 20, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed scepticism but was straight to the point about the strategic expansion of BRICS, of which Russia has been President since January 2024.

Tracking down the history, operations and achievements, Lavrov acknowledged in his interview that the BRICS association is consolidating its positions and cooperating with several countries.

At the same time, this Group is facing certain challenges. It is necessary to promote collaboration based on a balance of interests, and most importantly, ensure that BRICS functions based on consensus in the future.

Geo-strategists, however, believe that the consensus principle will primarily aim to find agreements that reflect the mutual accord of all participants. That, in the current scenario, will not be easy. The more the Partners, the harder it will be to reach an accord. In this context, we should not forget that it takes more time to finalise any consensus-based agreement than a vote-based solution.

BRICS expansion had sparked debates and discussions for the last few years. This difference of opinion continued till Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were finally accepted on the condition of "consensus" by BRICS members during the South African summit in August 2023.

Lavrov has already indicated and repeatedly explained the "suspension" of membership into BRICS+. Instead of membership, Lavrov has also observed that potential countries can only be accepted as a "partner group" with simple consideration to support and interact with the BRICS association.

According to information monitored, more than 30 countries, with growing discontent against Western hegemony, have confidentially expressed their readiness to join BRICS. Lavrov has also confirmed this figure in his interview with Sky News Arabia, and even earlier explained that "the modalities of ascension have to be collectively discussed" at subsequent Summits in future.

At South Africa's 15th Summit held under President Cyril Ramaphosa, several countries had expressed interest in ascending the BRICS association, but only five finally joined. The official documents, as stipulated by the guidelines, set no concrete criteria or rules for admission except using the flexible term "consensus" - a general agreement at the Summit which was utilized in the selection process. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Russian President Vladimir Putin have now described this designated circle of BRICS+ friends as "partner members" which has frankly been reflected in official documents.

As per the agreements reached at the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg in 2023, the Ministers reviewed the efforts to coordinate the modalities of the new category-- BRICS Partner Countries. Within the stipulated guidelines, Russia took over the BRICS one-year-long Presidency on January 1, 2024. What is likely to happen in 2025 after Donald Trump took over as President is a matter that analysts are monitoring carefully.

BRICS has experienced two phases of expansion. In 2011, South Africa joined the association, which included Brazil, Russia, India, and China. On January 1, 2024, five new members also officially entered the BRICS association - Ethiopia, Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

On  October 24, 2024, an additional 13 countries namely Algeria, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Nigeria, Thailand, Turkey, Uganda, Uzbekistan and Vietnam were invited to participate as "partner countries". The partner status would allow these countries to engage with and benefit from BRICS initiatives. It is however not clear whether the countries in this tier have received official membership invitations.

Nevertheless, there has been a movement forward towards further expansion. On  January 6, 2025, Indonesia joined BRICS officially as a full member, making it the first Southeast Asian nation to join the bloc, as well as the 10th member of BRICS.

Brazil, which now chairs the 11-nation BRICS grouping that also includes Russia and China, has called for closer cooperation as the world deals with conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza and trade wars under US President Donald Trump. "We advocate diplomacy instead of confrontation, and cooperation instead of unilateralism," Brazil's Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira has told the BRICS Foreign Ministers in Rio. "The conflict in Ukraine continues to have a severe humanitarian impact, highlighting the urgent need for a diplomatic solution," he added. Vieira has also called for a "complete withdrawal" of Israeli forces from Gaza. "The resumption of Israeli bombings and the continuous obstruction of humanitarian aid are unacceptable," he said.

Muhammad Zamir, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
muhammadzamir0@gmail.com