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Will there be a war for water in the future?

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The water conflict is the dispute between countries, states, or regions over the right to access water resources and systems. Conflicts for water can occur over both freshwater and saltwater. 

The distribution of freshwater on the surface of the Earth is highly uneven because rainfall patterns and soil type vary a lot from one region to the next. 

Brazil's Amazon region contains most of its total freshwater, but the population there is small. Peru, Brazil, Russia, the United States, Canada, China, Colombia, Indonesia, and India, these nine countries hold 60 per cent of the global freshwater resources. 

Conflicts over water can happen on intrastate and interstate levels. When two or more neighbouring countries sharing the same water source, such as a river or a sea, get into a conflict, it is called an interstate conflict. 

Intrastate conflicts occur between two or more parties residing in the same country. 

The dispute among Turkey, Syria, and Iraq regarding the Euphrates and Tigris Rivers and the Jordan River conflict among Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and the State of Palestine are some of the most controversial interstate conflicts. 

The clash between farmers and industry owners residing in the same country would be an easy example of an intrastate water conflict. 

For more than two decades, environmentalists, politicians, and journalists have expressed their fears about how water can become a potential source of future wars. 

Historically, famous rivers such as Indus, Jordan, and Nile all experienced water-related conflicts. Around the world, water resources have always been a central point of controversies that have questioned politicians' intentions.

The Water Conflict Chronology shows how disagreement over water takes three forms: trigger, weapon, and casualty.

  • Access to and control of water can be a trigger for violence. A growing number of killings over access to irrigation water has triggered violence in India and Pakistan during severe droughts.
  • Water resources are a violent tool or weapon in a violent conflict. For example, in 2019, water was used as a weapon when Israeli settlers flooded Palestinian olive groves with sewage.
  • Water resources are often intentional or incidental casualties of violence. Yemen's civilian water infrastructure has been attacked repeatedly during the war there. Around the world, water tanks, dams, and water utility equipment faced attacks in recent incidents. 

If we can understand the social, political, and economic factors that influence water conflicts, we can prevent those problems in the future. Let us look at some of the major disputes over water in history. 

Tigris and Euphrates Rivers

The Euphrates-Tigris Basin is occupying Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, with Iran comprising parts of the Tigris Basin. Throughout history, there have been conflicts over water usage from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. 

The satellite images show that the region is losing groundwater faster than almost all other places. Turkey initiated its Southeastern Anatolia project on the Euphrates, and this has caused water supply loss in Syria and Iraq. 

Disagreements have prevented the three nations from cooperating and co-managing the rivers. A formal agreement on managing the basin waters is on the waiting list.

Mekong basin

The Mekong River flows through Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam and originates from China. China has built 11 dams upstream of the Mekong River for hydropower generation. 

The countries downstream fear that the dams may bring negative impacts during monsoon and seasonal drought. 

The Mekong River is significant in supporting the livelihood of millions of people. These Chinese dams upstream have caused water level fluctuations on the Mekong River. 

The river's water level fell to its lowest in 100 years in 2018. Such disruption ruins the river's natural cycle along with people's livelihoods.

Aral Sea Crisis

The Aral Sea is in Central Asia, connected by the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers, shared by Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. The Soviet government diverted those rivers in the 1960s to irrigate the desert region surrounding the Sea to favour agriculture. 

The Soviet irrigation agriculture in Central Asia led to the Amu Darya River almost entirely drying out. Consequently, the Aral Sea's water level started drastically decreasing.

 Dispute over water in the Nile Basin

The Nile covers eleven countries in Africa. It is the primary water source of Egypt, Sudan, and South Sudan. The Nile River is the centre of conflict over access to its water resources. 

While Egypt claims its power over the Nile water based on historical practice, Ethiopia demands its rights to the water based on geographical location. Both Egypt and Ethiopia fear water shortage, as the water demand will increase with higher population and urbanisation. 

A negotiation happened between Egypt, Sudan, and South Sudan over massive dam construction in Ethiopia. 'The Cooperative Framework Agreement' by the Nile Basin Initiative has been signed by only six of 11 countries so far. 

India-Pakistan water conflicts

India and Pakistan had a conflict about the rights over the Indus River back in 1948. Following the dispute, the 'Indus Waters Treaty' was signed. However, there is still tension between India and Pakistan regarding the Indus River. 

The Indian government has already threatened Pakistan by diverting water to areas like Jammu, Kashmir, and Punjab in response to the Kashmir military clash. This can worsen the water crisis as both countries depend on the Indus River for water supply.

Transboundary water disputes between Afghanistan and Iran

The conflict over the Helmand River between Iran and Afghanistan has been going on for a long time. The Helmand River is a lifeline for both countries. It is Afghanistan's longest river, and it runs into Hamoun Lake. The river is an international or transboundary watercourse. 

In 1973, the two nations signed the Helmand River Treaty. The agreement stated that Iran would get an allocation of water from the river every month. But the government of Iran claims that its neighbour has been depriving them of their rights to water. 

Afghanistan says it needs dams to store water for agriculture or to produce electricity. The Iranian government believes Afghanistan's agricultural expansion and dam construction activities will harm the water security in its eastern and northeastern provinces. 

Intrastate water conflict

Water scarcity is increasing rapidly in conflict-affected regions. The Middle East and North African areas are most affected by climate change. These areas have a growing population, suffer from degraded water quality, and have a history of water conflicts between and within countries. Twelve of the top 17 water-scarce nations in the world are in these two regions. 

Cauvery Basin in India

The conflict over water from the Cauvery River between Karnataka and Tamil Nadu has been going on for a while. Karnataka has demanded a renegotiated settlement demanding an equal sharing of the waters. Violent protests occurred following decisions to alter water distribution between the two states.

Water Shortages in Yemen

Severe mismanagement has caused water availability to decline in Yemen. Water scarcity plays a major role in fuelling the nation's political and economic crisis. Corruption and anarchy are at the core of this imbalance. Only one-third of the country's population is connected to piped water. Trucks are the only way to water access in the rest of the places.

Armed conflict in Somalia

Somalia has been going through frequent droughts. Water scarcity has caused shepherds to sell more of their livestock than they normally would. Livestock prices decrease as a result, causing a deterioration in rural incomes. According to the Somalia Water Shortage Update, an estimated 4.2 million people in Somalia face severe water shortages. Widespread poverty and lack of provision have increased stimuli for criminal activities.

Water Privatisation in Cochabamba, Bolivia.

The Bolivian Water War took place in Cochabamba, its fourth-largest city. In 2000, the privatisation of drinking water escalated the water war of Cochabamba, in which almost nine people died. Eventually, the city's water was renationalised, and access to water received new legal backing. It has been said that the water is diverted to middle-income and industrial sectors only, while the poor people had to develop their own wells and water systems to deal with the water shortage. 

Colorado

The Colorado River has been a point of argument for over 100 years. In 1922, the seven basin states endorsed the original Colorado River Compact. The Upper Basin comprises Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming, and the Lower Basin includes Arizona, California, and Nevada. The pact served as a cornerstone of the "Law of the River" in the West.

The relationship between water and war is getting more complicated in an era of climate change. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reveals that climate change could cause a 20-40 per cent decline in food and water resource availability. 

Water sources are already under pressure from the rapidly increasing global population and growing demand. We must therefore expect tension over water and a rise in social conflicts and violence. Experts should use their knowledge about the new threats of climate change, environmental degradation, and population growth to help prevent water-related conflicts among regions. 

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