Can F-16 be a true game-changer for Ukraine?

The General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon is an American single-engine supersonic multirole fighter and undoubtedly the most advanced 4th generation fighter jet in the world. Till now, 4604 units of F-16 have been produced and at least 24 countries are operating these aircraft at present world.  The F-16 boasts amazing kill totals and is equipped with the most sophisticated and combat-tested BVR, the AIM-120, also referred to as the AMRAM beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile, which is more potent than the Russian R-77 missile.

The F-16 fighter jet's capability is unquestionable. However, aerial combat, also known as dogfight, is more about a pilot's skills than it is about the aircraft. It takes years for a pilot to familiarise with the system to acquire those skills. First of all, rather than Western fighter jets, Ukrainian pilots are more accustomed to Russian-built aircraft, such as the Mig-29 and Su-27. In addition to that, six months of training is insufficient for a pilot to operate an F-16 fighter jet, and as of right now, only six Ukrainian pilots have received this training. The Netherlands and Denmark reportedly delivered these aircraft to Ukrainian authorities. Interestingly both countries retired F-16 fighter jets from their existing inventory. They used to operate F-16, which is the older version of the F-16 variant and less capable compared to F-16V, commonly known as F-16 Block 70/72. F-16 may underperform on Ukrainian battlefields like other Western equipment including US-made Abrahams, German leopard tanks, and the M142 HIMARS missile system due to the lack of technical and operational skills of the Ukrainian force.

Russia also possesses cutting-edge aircraft, including Sukhoi Su-35 as well as 5th generation Sukhoi Su-57 which can challenge F-16 aircraft. The Russian air defence system should not be overlooked. Russia has a strong air defence system. The Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system is one of the most advanced as well as sophisticated SAM systems in the present world. Even NATO member state Turkey bought this system from Russia despite US objection. Russian air defence systems can bring down the most sophisticated drones and aircraft built in the United States. During the Vietnam War, the Soviets supplied air defence systems capable to shoot down US aircraft. In the Kosovo war, former Yugoslavia used the Soviet S-125 Neva/Pechora short-range surface-to-air missile system to shoot down the US stealth fighter jet F117 Nighthawk. In 2019, the US Navy's RQ-4A Global Hawk, an unmanned aircraft that cost more than $176 million, was shot down by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The Russian multi-layered air defence system is quite capable of bringing down F-16 fighter aircraft. While the F-16 will not suffice, Ukraine may find success with the F-35 and Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor aircraft. However, it is almost certain that the USA is not going to provide Ukraine with this aircraft in the near future.

The lack of manpower is currently Ukraine's biggest challenge, and many people there are against conscription. The Ukrainian military finds it difficult to bring on recruits. In this case, Ukraine's chances of winning the war are limited. Only the direct involvement of NATO in this war can save Ukraine from this crisis. NATO participation in this war will be a pragmatic decision for the West to sustain its reliability as a trusted ally. If not, Ukraine will gradually and steadily lose territory and soldiers day by day. Furthermore, if this conflict drags on for another two or three years, Ukraine may experience a severe demographic imbalance and turn into a nation of widows.

- The writer graduated from the University of Bradford, England, in International Relations and Security Studies