UK polls: Who will have the last laugh – Labour or Tories?

It has been more than six months since I arrived in England. During that time, I have already witnessed a local election. And as the citizens of Commonwealth nations can vote in elections in the United Kingdom (UK), I have been a registered voter and received postal mail requesting to cast my vote in the local election. I forgot to go to the polling station on election day though. I was not alone in this case since many of my colleagues, friends, and neighbours also didn’t cast their votes and even they seemed not to bother about the election.

The UK is all set to go to the polls tomorrow, July 4. Though the election was scheduled for May 2, the UK parliament was dissolved on May 30 according to the newly passed Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

According to the UK Electoral Commission, this time a total of 4,515 candidates, more than in any previous general election, are campaigning in 650 constituencies across the country. The majority of them are nominated by different political parties including two major parties, the Labour Party and the Conservative Party, also known as the Tories. Apart from them, many are also running as independent candidates.

Two major parties and their leaders, incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, led hectic election campaigns for the last six weeks. Candidates are also sparing no effort to win over the voters.

Migration, tax, inflation, defence, workers’ rights, climate change, Ukraine war, and the UK’s relations with the European Union (EU) are among the major issues on voters’ minds. The Gaza war has also turned out to be an important matter in the election as major cities in the country have been witnessing protests demanding an immediate ceasefire in Gaza since the beginning of the war. However, this issue can influence the ballots just on a limited scale as both major parties have already proven their proximity to Israel, leaving no option for the voters who have been campaigning for the ceasefire.

Although the UK is known as the mother of democracy I can’t see the festivity and fanfare among Britons that I always notice in Bangladesh, the nascent democracy, during elections. Much to my surprise, a considerable number of people in the UK don’t cast their votes and even many seem to be reluctant to register their names as voters.

After the electioneering began last month, I have been to more than three cities in England, and during the visits, not even a single procession, rally, or political gathering came to my view. I didn't even come across any candidate canvassing anywhere. I have yet to find any posters but discovered only some festoons asking for votes for several independent candidates.

However, electioneering has reached a fever pitch in the media. Every print, online, and broadcast media outlet has been running stories, interviews, analyses, polling results, and advertisements related to the election every day. The leaders of major political parties also went head-to-head on television debates several times.

Many political parties have fielded their candidates in the election. Nevertheless, Labour is expected to unseat the Tories, which has been in power for the last 14 years since 2010. In fact, Labour has been faring well in the local elections in recent years.

During the 2023 local elections, Labour gained more than 500 councillors and 22 councils, becoming the largest party in local government for the first time since 2002. Labour made further gains in the 2024 local elections, including winning the West Midlands mayoral election. Labour made startling gains in recently held by-elections too.

Opinion polling for the election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. All the pollsters are putting Labour much ahead of the Conservatives. According to polling results, the former is expected to bag more than 40 per cent of votes, while the latter can pick up over 21 per cent in no way.

Though most of the analysts and polling results are putting Labour far ahead of the Tories, it is the voters of the UK who will have the final say, and it is unwise to predict who will have the last laugh in the election on Thursday.

- smehassan@gmail.com